watched a whole bunch of macroeconomics vids from itpm

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closed out all my fucking positions today for -120, though the diagonal was pretty well hedged but a small down moved wiped out all the shit i made for the past few weeks.

currently only holding on to vix hoping shit goes back down

fucking lost

tried trading options iron condors with no success

tried to switch shit up with diagonals no success either

going back to the drawing board

going to halt trading options for now

for these 2 months where im on semester break, im gonna learn shit everyday

18/5/2017

  1. 9:30 AND +- 1 Hour Blockade
  • 49.56
  • 49.37
  1. API WEDNESDAY 4:30 AM // EIA WEDNESDAY 10:30 PM
  • 49.50 [Drop was half of what was expected [-0.413M -0.731M -0.150M] but price still spiked by $1]
  1. News Release POI
  • 47.88 [OPEC and some people agreed on extending cuts to March 2018]
  1. Implied Volatility
  • 33.9 [High, if vol goes down price goes up]
  1. Bookmap
  • 49.38
  • 49.28
  • heatmap buy clump + 4 buy sweeps
  • 7 buy sweeps spread out in spikes + heatmap buy clump
  1. Options T&S and Ratio
  • Heavy bias of calls from $49 to $51
  1. Options ITM Bias
  2. Bookmap Limit Order Replays
  • 49.50 [232 sell limit price bounced [Inventory release stopped right after surging]
  • 49.38 [price stops before hitting this sell limit twice in a a day]

 

49.56

49.50

49.50

49.38

49.38

49.37

49.28

47.88

 

10:56 PM:

Price spiked through to 49.68

Trading Checklist

  1. 9:30 AND +- 1 Hour Blockade
  2. API WEDNESDAY 4:30 AM // EIA WEDNESDAY 10:30 PM
  3. News Release POI
  4. Implied Volatility
  5. Bookmap
  6. Options T&S and Ratio
  7. Options ITM Bias
  8. Bookmap Limit Order Replays
  9. USD/CAD Correlation
  10. Check USO
  11. Read Oilprice and Reuters
  12. Check ETFs for Opportunities

Entered a short position because price keeps bouncing off this area. Looking at bookmap, the highest spike there was where crude inventory was released, inventory was down and initial reaction was up, however it went nose diving seconds after hitting a sell limit (see heatmap highest spike point). Price came back up again and went down, as it goes down a sell limit was established. Now price came back up again and that sell limit was pulled, but price still rejected it. On top of that, thinkorswim shows it as a well defended zone with several buy alerts/sweeps which got rejected.

I might chalk this one up to being stupid if I lose money as no sweeps were seen on tos besides the “bookmap show clump buy orders” lines

Pic 4 also shows how price nicely bounced of 48.77 + looking at bookmap shows it bounced off that area too even though the sell limit was pulled

RSI divergence shows a very nice bounce of that area where I left my stops at

Also, spread is 6-7 cents which is ridiculous. Please look carefully before entering next time.

11:22 Made 8 cents, feeling a little bit more confident in this after reviewing the trade properly

11:41 Price still not moving lower as fast as previous trades did. Starting to get worried. Still positive 7 cents

11:59 Just realized today is FOMC at 2AM. Currently at 90.8% probability of a hike at 0.75-1.0%. Market ranged bound. Still holding out despite the incoming event, hopefully the slippage isn’t too big.

12:11 Price reversing now down 5 cents. Still rather confident in this trade.

12:14 Changed my stop loss and added another 2 cents leeway in case price spiked just a little over that area

1:10 Price came back to 11 cents profit. FOMC in 50 minutes

1:18 Just made new low of 20 cents

2:00 Fed raised y 0.25 instead of 0.75-1.0 range as expected. GC jumped and DX down. Closed CL with a profit of 1 cent. Closed off mainly because I saw heatmap buy limit leashing which spooked me. Was right too, price shot above my stop if it was still there.